An August report from Bellwether suggests that although less than 1 percent of K-12 schools closed in the U.S. in the 2023–24 academic year, school closures may become less rare in the near future as local educational agencies grapple with declining enrollment, budget constraints and other issues.
Dwindling enrollment is a well-known national trend taking place primarily due to declining birth rates combined with school choice and interstate migration among other factors. Federal estimates are predicting a 5.5 percent decrease in public school enrollment numbers between fiscal years 2022 and 2031.
“Yet despite widespread enrollment decline, most districts still have roughly the same number of schools,” the report explains. “Although some districts may have reduced staffing or adopted other cost-saving measures to help balance budgets, COVID-19 relief dollars from the federal government, coupled with strong post-pandemic state economies, have shielded districts from taking more sweeping actions like school consolidations in recent years. That may be changing.”
Drawing on data from 9,300 LEAs (including dozens from California), researchers set out to find leading indicators that, when considered together, could mean that school closures will become more frequent in the looming months and years.
Sixty-eight percent of districts from the sample group experienced declines in enrollment between the 2019–20 and 2023–24 academic years with those located in the West represented at the highest rate of all regions at 76 percent, followed closely by those in the Northeast at 73 percent. While it’s an overarching problem, the severity and scope vary by region and community.
Loss in enrollment corresponds with schools receiving less funding. “Because state and local funding for public schools is typically allocated through formulas largely based on student enrollment, even modest enrollment losses can lead to substantial reductions in district budgets,” the report states.
Of the LEAs that experienced a dip in enrollment, Bellwether projects the median district could have lost roughly $1.5 million in revenue from 2019–20 and 2023–24.
Additionally, of the districts that saw a drop in enrollment, “the median district saw an average school size drop of 25 students — about one full classroom per school,” according to the report.
“When school districts serve fewer students but maintain the same physical footprint, they end up operating with more empty seats,” the report states. “In general, it is costly to maintain an underutilized school site. School buildings come with many relatively fixed costs, including heating and cooling, maintenance and repair, and custodial costs.”
The following key findings emerged from the study:
- A majority of districts are only considering closures at the elementary level
- Most districts start with a larger closure plan that is scaled back due to factors like public pressure
- Districts often decide to reduce staff or services either before or in conjunction with closures
The report also includes profiles of 17 LEAs, including San Francisco Unified School District, considering closures or consolidations.
Acknowledging the potential negative impact that conversations and decisions about school closures can have on staff, students, families and communities, Bellwether suggests LEA leaders provide strong communications and transparency and practice inclusive decision-making. Should the decision be made to close a campus, support for students and educators who may be displaced should be a priority.
Avoiding tough choices, like closing underenrolled schools, can cause resources to be spread too thin and block potential benefits.
“Fiscal inefficiency and a constant cycle of fiscal crises can further erode community confidence,” according to the report. “A smaller district footprint does not have to mean diminished opportunities for students. Districts that proactively respond to declining enrollment can use this period of fiscal transition to realign budgets in ways that preserve and even expand student opportunities.”
